While the Olympics are winding up, the political season is about to move into full swing with the upcoming party national nominating conventions just around the corner! In the past few months, I'm sure you've all heard news commentators reporting on "the latest polling numbers" with regard to the presidential election. The latest MSNBC/Wall Street Journal poll provides some interesting insight regarding the dynamics of the campaign. Click on the link below to view a video clip highlighting some of most interesting findings of the poll:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26316412#26316412
Then comment on one or more of the following findings of the poll:
* Reduction of Obama lead over McCain
* Generational differences in support for each candidate
* Implications of allegiance of undecided voters to Hillary Clinton
* Candidate strengths on certain issues
* McCain's "Bush Problem"
Note: This post is not about your preference for one candidate over the other; it's about objective political analysis. Do your best to adhere to the OBJECTIVE part.
6 comments:
There is no "Bush problem" for John McCain because most people dont really hate Mr. George W. all that much or at least, they cant pin-point why. His job rating has been at an all-time low for what seems like an eternity. People say that they want a change, they want someone to get us out of this hole that Bush seems to have put us in, blah blah blah. Well if that is what the public really wants, the option is there and that change is Barack Obama. He is what would seem like the complete opposite of Bush differentiating in just about all of his views and policies. The guy would definitely bring about a change. And yet, when it comes down to the polls and what the public really seems to want, its not overwhelming. There is a split between those who want that change and those who want the re-incarnation of Bush, Sir John McCain, in office. If the public wanted a change so badly, why hasn't Obama pulled away. Why has McCain instead gained on Obama in recent polls. When asked if McCain would follow closely with Bush's policies, an astounding 77 percent said that he will. People hate Bush's policies, we all know that. They think that McCain will have very similar policies, according to the polls. Yet, when asked who they would want to be president, at this point in time there is almost an even split. So why does everyone hate Bush again? It seems like its because it is the fun and popular thing to do. When push comes to shove, people really dont hate Bush's policies as much as his job rating would make it seem, and that is why I dont think McCain needs to separate himself from the Bush image. Although it would be nice if he showed a bit more skill in the area of public speaking. That always helps.
- Matt Colwell
But if President Bush's approval ratings are at an all-time low, and voters believe that John McCain will be, in your words, the "reincarnation" of George Bush, in a close race, might McCain lose enough of the voters who believe that, and thus lose the whole enchilada? That seems like a BIG problem to me. The McCain campaign seems to be thinking in that direction, since they're working so hard to paint their candidate as a "maverick", his own man, and not 4 more years of the same George Bush policies. What if he could persuade just a few of those skeptical people? Then maybe the polling numbers we're seeing would be reversed.
I have to agree that McCain has a “Bush problem”. With President Bush’s rating at an all time low and 77% of the people believing that McCain will follow his policies, McCain needs to do something to assure people that he is different. Not only does McCain have many of the same unpopular views, but he is also from the same generation as Bush. Most of Obama’s supporters are under the age of 35. These people have different priorities than the older generation. Their priorities are what are seen as Obama’s strengths: health care, economy, and jobs. This is why Obama’s vice president pick is critical. He needs to have someone who will draw in older voters whose priorities are terrorism, international policy, and the war in Iraq. I wonder if the 13% of undecided Democratic voters that are strong Hillary supporters are of the older generation, and feel that Obama is too young and inexperienced to lead our country. For a democratic win it is critical that Hillary help sway these voters by coming out strongly for Obama.
- Jenna Hansroth
So, Jenna, based on your comments, do you think Obama should pick Clinton as his VP running mate? Remember, and this applies to anyone who responds to my question, try to base your answer on objective reasons, not your personal opinion of Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. Does she give him the best chance to win the undecideds? Should this be the priority in selecting a VP running mate? Or should his selection for a VP candidate be geared to shoring up his perceived weaknesses in the areas of foreign policy and national security? If that's true, whom should he pick? (Note: by Saturday, we may know who Obama's running mate will be, but the questions are still valid.)
This morning I heard Obama picked Biden. This is not surprising since Biden has strengths in areas people think Obama is weak (foreign relations). Many people thought he would pick Hilary. Hilary might have been a good pick to help bridge the differences within the democratic party, but she really didn't have the type of experience Obama needs to help him run the country.
--Jenna Hansroth
I also agree that McCain does have a Bush problem. If voters think that he is going to follow in Bush's foot prints, that isn't what the voters want. McCain needs to put it out there that he isn't the same. The generational differences are pretty obvious. The older people are in supporters of McCain because he is their generation. I can see why people would vote for him because he is older. With age comes wisdom and experience. Personally, I don't see a big difference in the wisdom of the candidates. The age sure is different, though. Obama's supporters are around middle age and lower, especially the 18-25 group. Like Jenna said, Obama's strengths are in the issues concerning his generation of voters. It is the same situation with McCain. Jenna kind of took the words out of my mouth (hehe). Obama's running mate can either help him majorly or hurt him. He needs someone that will attract the generation that he isn't. I think that the Hilary supporters are probably middle age or lower because older people are traditional. That means that it is less likely that they would vote a woman into office. By Clinton showing her support for Obama, it should help him gain that questionable 13%.
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